Climate Variability and Predictability
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Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability
The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation a ecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbatio...
متن کاملLimits of predictability in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model
We study limits of interannual to decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific sector of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Using a set of low-frequency and intermittent spatiotemporal SST modes acquired through nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (a nonlinear data manifold generalization of singular spectrum analysis), we build a hierarchy o...
متن کاملNewsletter of the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme ( CLIVAR )
The anomaly correlation for area-averaged seasonal rainfall anomalies (JJA left, DJF right) in selected regions of the world for ECMWF System 3 seasonal forecasts. The upper panels show the correlation between forecasts and observations-in some regions this is quite high, in others it is near zero. The lower panels show the model estimate of the predictability limit, in other words the correlat...
متن کاملAtlantic Climate Variability and Predictability: A CLIVAR Perspective
Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through va...
متن کاملA perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability
This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which coul...
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تاریخ انتشار 2002